analysis · GPT-4o · free
Size the market for [PRODUCT/CATEGORY] using Fermi estimation. Rough, defensible, fast. Context: What it is: [DESCRIBE] Buyer: [WHO WOULD PAY] Geography: [WHERE] Rough price they'd pay: [$/YR OR $/USE] Deliver: The decomposition chain (population → filters → willing buyers → paying buyers) Each step with the estimate + why it's roughly right (order of magnitude) Total market in three orders: pessimistic / central / optimistic The 2 assumptions with the biggest error bars The one real world data point I should find next to sharpen the estimate A one line summary I can drop in a Twitter reply or a founder chat Aim for 15 minute clarity, not 15 week research.
#fermi #market-sizing #napkin-math